Holden vs. McCaskill: governor attacks more
Holden’s gubernatorial ads more negative than opponents’ from past campaigns

With Missouri Governor Bob Holden and State Auditor Claire McCaskill in the midst of a Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign, new analysis by William Benoit, professor of Communication and author of Campaign 2000, revealed that Holden’s ads contain twice as many attacking statements than McCaskill’s.

Benoit found that of the eight ads released by Holden, 54 percent contained attacking statements, whereas 27 percent of the seven McCaskill ads contained such statements. Benoit also found that Holden’s ads are more negative this campaign compared to when he ran in 2000. That year, 12 percent of his statements were attacks. This year, Holden’s degree of negativity is higher than his 2000 Republican opponent’s level of attacks. Jim Talent’s gubernatorial ads only contained 27 percent attacking statements in 2000, the same amount as McCaskill this year.

This year, both Holden and McCaskill are emphasizing policy over character in their ads. Holden stressed policy in 64 percent of his statements, while McCaskill stressed policy in 60 percent of her statements. When drawing comparisons from the last gubernatorial campaign, Benoit found that Holden discussed policy in 65 percent of his ads while Talent discussed it in 57 percent of his ads.

"Because he has served a term as governor, Bob Holden should be better known to Missouri voters," Benoit said. "However, the budget wars and other problems mean that his term has been controversial. On the other hand, McCaskill is not as well known to voters. This means that the two candidates have different problems. Holden needs to overcome the controversies that he has experienced. McCaskill needs to tell voters what she would do if elected, in particular, how she would be better than Holden."

In the two recent Democratic gubernatorial primary debates, Benoit found that 79 percent of Holden’s statements were positive compared to 52 percent for McCaskill. However, McCaskill attacked more than Holden did; 44 percent of her statements were negative compared to 7 percent for Holden. Holden tried to refute or rebut McCaskill’s criticisms more frequently, defending against attacks at 14 percent compared to 4 percent for McCaskill. In the debates, both candidates emphasized policy more than character. Holden stressed policy 72 percent, while McCaskill stressed it 56 percent of the time.

"This situation parallels the race for the White House," Benoit said. "As the incumbent, President Bush is better known from his first term in office but, like Holden, he faced important controversies. Senator Kerry is not as well known as the incumbent."

Other information about the 2004 presidential campaign, along with historic contextual information, can be found at Benoit’s Presidential Campaign 2004 Website: http://presidentialcampaign2004.coas.missouri.edu/.

Additional links:

Bill Benoit
Department of Communication
Presidential Campaign 2004

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