Analyis finds presidential candidates positive during May debate

In May, nine candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for president of the United States met in South Carolina for the first presidential debate of the election season. In the previous 55 years, no presidential campaign featured a debate this early. A researcher at the University of Missouri-Columbia analyzed the debate and found that, contrary to media reports, the majority of the statements made by the candidates were positive, but most of the attacks were on President Bush, which is unlike primary debates from earlier years

William Benoit, Communication professor and author of five books and more than 25 articles on political campaigns, discovered that 59 percent of the statements made by the candidates were positive, 35 percent were negative and 6 percent refuted attacks. Benoit says this mirrors results from earlier debates. In presidential primary debates from 1948 to 2000, positive statements were 63 percent, attacks were 32 percent and refutations of attacks were 4 percent.

"One reason we may think this debate was highly negative could be media coverage," Benoit said. "Research shows that newspaper stories about political debates consistently over-represent the attacks. Even though attacks represent about one-third of the comments in debates, more than 50 percent of the candidates’ statements quoted or paraphrased in newspapers were regarding attacks."

Benoit found approximately 63 percent of the attacks focused on President Bush, 25 percent targeted Democratic candidates and 10 percent attacked the "establishment." This focus of attacks is quite different from past primary debates, Benoit says. In the 25 primary debates he studied from 1948 to 2000, attacks focused on same-party candidates 47 percent of the time, the other party 30 percent and the establishment 24 percent.

"In 2000, Bush had to get past McCain, Forbes and other fellow Republicans to obtain the nomination and the right to confront Vice-President Gore in the general election," Benoit said. "Today, these Democrats have to convince Democratic primary voters they are preferable to their fellow Democrats, so they can win the Democratic nomination. While we would expect criticism of the incumbent party, attacking President Bush will not make them stand out in this crowd."

Finally, Benoit found that when Democrats spoke, 67 percent of their statements focused on foreign policy, the economy or other policy topics, while 33 percent focused on character. Benoit believes that since more voters say they choose their president based on issues rather than character, the candidates may be reflecting this voter preference in their debate statements. He predicts that when the actual primaries get closer (that is, by December or January), the Democrats will start attacking one another more than they are now.

For more information, contact Bill Benoit, 573-882-0545, BenoitW@missouri.edu.

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Bill Benoit
Department of Communication

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