Analyis finds presidential primary debate more negative, policy-driven than past debates

Eight candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination met recently to debate in New Mexico. Historically, these primary debates focus more on policy than character and contain more positive statements and fewer attacks. Analysis performed by William Benoit, Communication professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia, found that the candidates’ comments were significantly more negative and discussed policy significantly more than past primary debates.

Benoit found approximately 58 percent of the comments were positive and 41 percent were negative. In the debates Benoit analyzed from 1948 to 2000, only 32 percent of the statements were negative, with 63 percent positive. The candidates, Benoit said, focused their remarks on policy 77 percent of the time and on character 23 percent of the time. From 1948 to 2000, only 63 percent of the remarks focused on policy, with 37 percent character.

Benoit also examined the target of attack. Approximately 79 percent were focused on President George W. Bush, 13 percent on the status quo and 9 percent toward each other. In the past, Benoit said, attacks in primary debates usually focused on opponents from the same party 47 percent of the time, rather than on candidates from the other party (30 percent). It was fairly common to attack the status quo in past debates (24 percent).

"Candidates usually try not to attack fellow party members; however, to win, each must offer Democratic primary voters a reason to prefer themselves over their Democratic opponents," Benoit said. "One way a candidate can distinguish himself or herself from others is to identify opponents’ weaknesses. This means that attacks on Democrats are likely to increase before the primaries are finished."

Regarding the television spots put up by Howard Dean, John Edwards, Richard "Dick" Gephardt and John Kerry, Benoit found they are focusing more on policy (64 percent) than character (36 percent). Public opinion polls, Benoit said, consistently show more voters believe policy issues rather than character are a more important determinant of their vote for president.

"It appears that these candidates are focusing on the topics that matter most," Benoit said. "Candidates who discuss policy more than their opponents have a significant edge at the polls, which means that they are more likely to win primary nominations and general elections."

For more information, contact Bill Benoit, 573-882-0545, BenoitW@missouri.edu.

Additional links:

Bill Benoit
Department of Communication

<< back to news
<< back to archives