Researcher finds hunting most successful on first day
Turkey hunting success rates higher in northern Missouri

Ninety-five percent of Americans will feast on turkey this Thanksgiving with 45 million birds featured as the main course on tables across the country. According to research by University of Missouri-Columbia statistics professors, a former graduate student and a Missouri conservation official, Missouri hunters had good luck securing bounty for their meals this year, with the best chance of getting a bird the first day of hunting season.

Results from the 2004 fall firearms turkey season indicated that 11,743 turkeys were harvested, which was 450 more than in 2003, but short of the record harvest of 14,487 birds in 2002. By reviewing hunting survey data from the 1996 two-week spring hunting season, Chong He and Dongchu Sun, associate professor and professor of Statistics at MU, and former graduate student Jacob Oleson, now an assistant professor at the University of Iowa, have developed a statistical model to note the success rates on each day of the hunting season. Working with Biometrician Steven Sheriff and Biologist Larry Vangilder of Missouri Department of Conservation, they found hunters were most successful on the first day of hunting season, with a decreasing trend for the rest of the first week. Professor He said the decrease is expected.

"During the first week, after a hunter is successful, they must wait until the second week before hunting again," Professor He said. "Under these rules, the more skilled or experienced hunters may bag their turkey early in the week, leaving the less skilled or experienced to hunt the remainder of the week."

At the beginning of the second week, all hunters are allowed to continue their hunting and the model shows the success rates again climb. Professor He says a second peak in turkey harvests occurs on Wednesday of the second week, which is day 10 of the season. One explanation could be that more experienced hunters realize there would have been many people hunting at the beginning of week two so they waited until mid-week to attempt to bag their second bird. They found that fewer birds are harvested on weekends because the experienced hunters have already fulfilled their bag limit before the weekend comes. In addition, the birds are less wary the first day of the season.

Rather than looking at individual counties, the researchers' study divided the state into four regions: north, south, St. Louis and Kansas City. The Missouri River splits the north and south regions. According to the study, success rates in northern Missouri are typically higher than those in southern Missouri. Professor He attributes that to the geography rather than the skill of the hunters in those areas.

While their study only examines turkey season, Professor He said they will develop a model to study deer hunting activities soon.

Nov. 2004

Additional links:

Chong He
Dongchu Sun
Department of Statistics
Statistics in Conservation Intern Program

<< back to news
<< back to archives