As we near the homestretch of an election year, an MU professor offers some

Political Wisdom

by Melody Galen

Regarding politics, it is fair to say that people fall into one of two groups: they often think they know it all, or they claim to understand very little of it. With this being an election year, we're bombarded by politics - political strategists, political campaigns and the resulting promises, and the media pundits putting their spin on what we've seen or heard.

Professor John Petrocik, chair of the Department of Political Science, has made a study of politics for the last 35 years, and he knows of some myths, or at least misconceptions, that are popularly believed about the political realm.

Everybody knows that when voter turnout is high, Democrats do better than when it is low. According to Petrocik, "That's just wrong." Conventional wisdom often tells us things that are based more on perceptions - ones possibly slanted by the media - than on proven facts, he says.

The gender gap is commonly thought to have something to do with women and their aversion to the Republican party. "The gender gap exists because men have become dramatically more Republican in the last 20 years," Petrocik says. Women have not changed their party identification much, and there would be virtually no difference between men and women if men had continued to behave as they did 50 years ago.

What moves young people is of great interest in political circles. Being in tune with a large, fairly untapped segment of the population could mean the difference in success or failure for a candidate - but that is not as simple as it might sound. "The most substantively consistent fact about young voters is that they're young, and what they're doing today they could be doing completely differently tomorrow," Petrocik says.

"It doesn't matter how old you are, what matters is when you were young," he says. Petrocik explains that what happens to a person and around a person when he or she is coming of age leaves a strong impression that is often carried through life, and that in turn helps form later voting habits and political leanings. The average voter's age is around 45; people near that age have a few decades more experience on which to base their decisions. An average 20-year-old is not likely to have been paying close attention to where the economy or the administration was taking the country 10 or 12 years ago, but a 45-year-old would remember the effects of those decisions.

Both political parties know the value of young voters: they are a potential source of supporters if one can initially win their approval. "If you look at data, the relative balance of Democrats to Republicans among older voters from different eras corresponds to what was going on when those people came of age," Petrocik says. For example, 50 years ago, older voters were very Republican because their experiences predated the New Deal.

"If you're a Democrat, you look at Obama and the youth vote and what's happening right now, and you recognize this as a great opportunity because those 45-year-olds will be dead a lot sooner than the 18-year-olds," Petrocik explains. "And that bespeaks a future of Democratic dominance. It is these generational differences, sometimes favoring Democrats but at other times aiding the GOP that make changes in party systems."

Petrocik and colleagues Karen M. Kaufmann and Daron R. Shaw have a recent book, Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths about American Voters, that touches on several issues that shape the voting public. One thing that motivated them to write this book is the extent to which political concepts are misunderstood - they hoped to dispel some of the myths that abound.

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John Petrocik
Department of Political Science