Smale finds Castro's temporary ceding of power signals permanent leadership change in Cuba

For the first time in 47 years, President Fidel Castro has ceded control of Cuba. After undergoing intestinal surgery, Castro has temporarily turned over power to his brother Raul. Castro, who turns 80 on August 13, has led the island nation since 1959. In recent years, there has been much speculation about Castro's health. He fainted in 2001 while giving a speech in hot weather. He broke his right arm and left kneecap in 2004 after tripping and falling. In 1998, the Miami Herald reported that Castro was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. In a statement, Castro said the days and nights of continuous work caused his health to fail.

Signs of health problems were evident earlier this summer to a University of Missouri-Columbia faculty member. While working in Bolivia, Robert Smale, assistant professor of History, became skeptical of Castro's health when the Cuban leader failed to make an appearance at a major announcement regarding a trade agreement among Cuba, Bolivia and Venezuela. Smale said in the past Castro would almost always take advantage of such media appearance opportunities. Smale said Castro's decision to turn over power is significant.

"This is a substantial sign," Smale said. "Since '59, he has never relinquished power, not even to his brother. This is a clear sign that his health is weakening. Until this point, even with surgeries and injuries, he has never handed over power to Raul."

Smale said Monday's decision is a sign that permanent leadership change in Cuba is imminent. However, predicting Cuba's future, at this point, is difficult because of unknown factors like the strength of the Communist Party and the level of support for Raul.

Smale joined MU's faculty in 2005. He specializes in the history of Latin America. He has spent more than two years living and studying in the land-locked Andean republic of Bolivia. He also has traveled widely in Mexico, Peru, Argentina and Chile. His research focuses on the political, economic and cultural struggles of South America's popular classes: the rural peasantry and the urban working class. He is currently drafting a book on peasant and worker political mobilization in early twentieth-century Bolivia. That country experienced one of Latin America's more substantial social revolutions of the modern era.

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Robert Smale
Department of History